dimarts, d’abril 21, 2009

Divide et Impera

Aprofitant una classe PHP que vaig fer per a calcular el repartiment d'escons segons la Llei d'Hondt, l'he aplicada comptant que RCat podria treure un 20% (al Congrés d'ERC va treure un 27%) dels vots d'Esquerra, i el resultat no és gaire esperançador per a les aspiracions sobiranistes, ERC + RCat perdrien 2 escons que aniriren a parar a CiU i PSOE.

Resultats 2006 reals:

CiU48
PSC-PSOE37
ERC21
PP14
ICV-EUiA12
Cs3

Resultats 2006 comptant que RCat es podria dur un 20% dels vots d'ERC i la resta de partits no es mouen:
CiU49
PSC-PSOE38
ERC17
RCat2
PP14
ICV-EUiA12
Cs3

L'actual tripartit sumaria 67 (38+17+12) i CiU + RCat 51, o sigui que només seria útil per desbancar el PSOE al Parlament de Catalunya si Esquerra s'abstinguès.
Esquerra en perdria 4 escons, 2 de Barcelona per a RCat, 1 de Girona per a CiU i 1 de Lleida per al PSOE.

Aquí deixo els càlculs realitzats, de valoracions no en faré gaires... de moment ;-)

Càlcul de la llei d'Hondt Eleccions Parlament 2006 amb RCat amb el 20% de vots d'ERC

Barcelona

CiUPSC-PSOEERCRCatPPICV-EUiACs
664723,00620601,00224452,8056113,20248165,00230968,0078525,00
332361,50310300,50112226,4028056,60124082,50115484,0039262,50
221574,33206867,0074817,6018704,4082721,6776989,3326175,00
166180,75155150,2556113,2014028,3062041,2557742,0019631,25
132944,60124120,2044890,5611222,6449633,0046193,6015705,00
110787,17103433,5037408,809352,2041360,8338494,6713087,50
94960,4388657,2932064,698016,1735452,1432995,4311217,86
83090,3877575,1328056,607014,1531020,6328871,009815,63
73858,1168955,6724939,206234,8027573,8925663,118725,00
66472,3062060,1022445,285611,3224816,5023096,807852,50
60429,3656418,2720404,805101,2022560,4520997,097138,64
55393,5851716,7518704,404676,1020680,4219247,336543,75
51132,5447738,5417265,604316,4019089,6217766,776040,38
47480,2144328,6416032,344008,0917726,0716497,715608,93
44314,8741373,4014963,523740,8816544,3315397,875235,00
41545,1938787,5614028,303507,0815510,3114435,504907,81
39101,3536505,9413203,113300,7814597,9413586,354619,12
36929,0634477,8312469,603117,4013786,9412831,564362,50
34985,4232663,2111813,312953,3313061,3212156,214132,89
33236,1531030,0511222,642805,6612408,2511548,403926,25
31653,4829552,4310688,232672,0611817,3810998,483739,29
30214,6828209,1410202,402550,6011280,2310498,553569,32
28901,0026982,659758,822439,7010789,7810042,093414,13
27696,7925858,389352,202338,0510340,219623,673271,88
26588,9224824,048978,112244,539926,609238,723141,00
25566,2723869,278632,802158,209544,818883,383020,19
24619,3722985,228313,072078,279191,308554,372908,33
23740,1122164,328016,172004,048863,048248,862804,46
22921,4821400,037739,751934,948557,417964,412707,76
22157,4320686,707481,761870,448272,177698,932617,50
21442,6820019,397240,411810,108005,327450,582533,06
20772,5919393,787014,151753,547755,167217,752453,91
20143,1218806,096801,601700,407520,156999,032379,55
19550,6818252,976601,551650,397298,976793,182309,56
18992,0917731,466412,941603,237090,436599,092243,57
18464,5317238,926234,801558,706893,476415,782181,25
17965,4916773,006066,291516,576707,166242,382122,30
17492,7116331,615906,651476,666530,666078,112066,45
17044,1815912,855755,201438,806363,215922,262013,46
16618,0815515,035611,321402,836204,135774,201963,13
16212,7615136,615474,461368,616052,805633,371915,24
15826,7414776,215344,111336,035908,695499,241869,64
15458,6714432,585219,831304,965771,285371,351826,16
15107,3414104,575101,201275,305640,115249,271784,66
14771,6213791,134987,841246,965514,785132,621745,00
14450,5013491,334879,411219,855394,895021,041707,07
14143,0413204,284775,591193,905280,114914,211670,74
13848,4012929,194676,101169,035170,104811,831635,94
13565,7812665,334580,671145,175064,594713,631602,55
13294,4612412,024489,061122,264963,304619,361570,50
13033,7812168,654401,041100,264865,984528,781539,71
12783,1311934,634316,401079,104772,404441,691510,10
12541,9411709,454234,961058,744682,364357,891481,60
12309,6911492,614156,531039,134595,654277,191454,17
12085,8711283,654080,961020,244512,094199,421427,73
11870,0511082,164008,091002,024431,524124,431402,23
11661,8110887,743937,77984,444353,774052,071377,63
11460,7410700,023869,88967,474278,713982,211353,88
11266,4910518,663804,28951,074206,193914,711330,93
11078,7210343,353740,88935,224136,083849,471308,75
10897,1010173,793679,55919,894068,283786,361287,30
10721,3410009,693620,21905,054002,663725,291266,53
10551,169850,813562,74890,693939,133666,161246,43
10386,309696,893507,08876,773877,583608,881226,95
10226,519547,713453,12863,283817,923553,351208,08
10071,569403,053400,80850,203760,083499,521189,77
9921,249262,703350,04837,513703,963447,281172,01
9775,349126,493300,78825,193649,493396,591154,78
9633,678994,223252,94813,233596,593347,361138,04
9496,048865,733206,47801,623545,213299,541121,79
9362,308740,863161,31790,333495,283253,071105,99
9232,268619,463117,40779,353446,743207,891090,63
9105,798501,383074,70768,673399,523163,951075,68
8982,748386,503033,15758,293353,583121,191061,15
8862,978274,682992,70748,183308,873079,571047,00
8746,368165,802953,33738,333265,333039,051033,22
8632,778059,752914,97728,743222,922999,581019,81
8522,097956,422877,60719,403181,602961,131006,73
8414,227855,712841,17710,293141,332923,65993,99
8309,047757,512805,66701,423102,062887,10981,56
8206,467661,742771,02692,763063,772851,46969,44
8106,387568,302737,23684,313026,402816,68957,62
8008,717477,122704,25676,062989,942782,75946,08
7913,377388,112672,06668,012954,352749,62934,82
7820,277301,192640,62660,162919,592717,27923,82

CiU27
PSC-PSOE25
ERC9
RCat2
PP10
ICV-EUiA9
Cs3

Girona

CiUPSC-PSOEERCRCatPPICV-EUiACs
104840,0060755,0042239,2010559,8019808,0020978,002584,00
52420,0030377,5021119,605279,909904,0010489,001292,00
34946,6720251,6714079,733519,936602,676992,67861,33
26210,0015188,7510559,802639,954952,005244,50646,00
20968,0012151,008447,842111,963961,604195,60516,80
17473,3310125,837039,871759,973301,333496,33430,67
14977,148679,296034,171508,542829,712996,86369,14
13105,007594,385279,901319,982476,002622,25323,00
11648,896750,564693,241173,312200,892330,89287,11
10484,006075,504223,921055,981980,802097,80258,40
9530,915523,183839,93959,981800,731907,09234,91
8736,675062,923519,93879,981650,671748,17215,33
8064,624673,463249,17812,291523,691613,69198,77
7488,574339,643017,09754,271414,861498,43184,57
6989,334050,332815,95703,991320,531398,53172,27
6552,503797,192639,95659,991238,001311,13161,50
6167,063573,822484,66621,161165,181234,00152,00

CiU8
PSC-PSOE4
ERC3
RCat0
PP1
ICV-EUiA1
Cs0

Lleida

CiUPSC-PSOEERCRCatPPICV-EUiACs
72916,0040097,0025843,206460,8016605,0012018,001761,00
36458,0020048,5012921,603230,408302,506009,00880,50
24305,3313365,678614,402153,605535,004006,00587,00
18229,0010024,256460,801615,204151,253004,50440,25
14583,208019,405168,641292,163321,002403,60352,20
12152,676682,834307,201076,802767,502003,00293,50
10416,575728,143691,89922,972372,141716,86251,57
9114,505012,133230,40807,602075,631502,25220,13
8101,784455,222871,47717,871845,001335,33195,67
7291,604009,702584,32646,081660,501201,80176,10
6628,733645,182349,38587,351509,551092,55160,09
6076,333341,422153,60538,401383,751001,50146,75
5608,923084,381987,94496,981277,31924,46135,46
5208,292864,071845,94461,491186,07858,43125,79
4861,072673,131722,88430,721107,00801,20117,40

CiU7
PSC-PSOE4
ERC2
RCat0
PP1
ICV-EUiA1
Cs0

Tarragona

CiUPSC-PSOEERCRCatPPICV-EUiACs
93277,0074720,0040548,8010137,2031644,0018729,006970,00
46638,5037360,0020274,405068,6015822,009364,503485,00
31092,3324906,6713516,273379,0710548,006243,002323,33
23319,2518680,0010137,202534,307911,004682,251742,50
18655,4014944,008109,762027,446328,803745,801394,00
15546,1712453,336758,131689,535274,003121,501161,67
13325,2910674,295792,691448,174520,572675,57995,71
11659,639340,005068,601267,153955,502341,13871,25
10364,118302,224505,421126,363516,002081,00774,44
9327,707472,004054,881013,723164,401872,90697,00
8479,736792,733686,25921,562876,731702,64633,64
7773,086226,673379,07844,772637,001560,75580,83
7175,155747,693119,14779,782434,151440,69536,15
6662,645337,142896,34724,092260,291337,79497,86
6218,474981,332703,25675,812109,601248,60464,67
5829,814670,002534,30633,581977,751170,56435,63
5486,884395,292385,22596,311861,411101,71410,00
5182,064151,112252,71563,181758,001040,50387,22

CiU7
PSC-PSOE5
ERC3
RCat0
PP2
ICV-EUiA1
Cs0